The Golden Knights are a very, very good hockey team
Through the first 28 games, the Golden Knights have been outstanding. They currently sit atop the Honda West Division with a 21-6-1 record (43 points) and have a five point cushion on the next closest team. Thanks to their COVID break, they have games in hand on every team in the division as well. The Golden Knights are also first in the entire league in points percentage, at .768. Mark Stone leads the way for the team in scoring. Through 27 games played, Stone has racked up 10 goals and 25 assists for a total of 35 points. Stone has not only run the offense, but has been the x-factor for the team. Max Pacioretty leads the team with 16 goals, and Alex Tuch has rebounded in a big way from his disastrous season last year (13 goals, 7 assists, 20 points). Shea Theodore has led all defensemen for the VGK with 23 points and is currently riding a six-game point streak. While their power play struggled to start the season, it has continued to improve. The penalty kill has been lights out since the playoffs last year, and has continued to dominate opposing power plays.
Marc-Andre Fleury is the reason this team is where it is and deserves the net moving forward
Mark Stone has been great, as has Max Pacioretty. However, they are not the reason this team is where it is. That title goes to 36 year-old goaltender Marc Andre Fleury. Before the season began, Fleury’s name got tossed around for trade bait. At the time, it made sense. Robin Lehner is younger, and was coming off an impressive run in the playoffs. When trying to sign Alex Pietrangelo, getting rid of Fleury’s deal made the most sense. The Golden Knights tried to trade Fleury, but were unable to find a suitor for his entire seven million dollar deal. This situation clearly lit a fire under the face of the franchise. Through this point of the season, Fleury has not only won games for the Knights that they should not have, he has put together a Vezina caliber season. He leads the NHL with a 1.87 goals against average and a .933 save percentage. These numbers not only lead the league, but smash all of his career highs. Fleury has stolen countless games for the team, and has kept them competitive in all of them. They have lost by more than one goal once with Fleury between the pipes, and that game was 1-0 until the dying seconds of the game. Fleury was pulled from the other and the team nearly came back to tie that game. DeBoer talked at the beginning of the season about splitting time evenly between the two goaltenders. At this point, Fleury should have the net and even with Lehner back from injured reserve, he should get the majority of the starts for the rest of the season.
Alex Pietrangelo: bad luck or bad contract?
Pietrangelo obviously has not lived up to his 8.8 million dollar contract, but he has not had the time to really get going. Every time he has started to look like the player he was in St. Louis, something has happened to knock him out of game action. First it was COVID, and now a wrist injury has sidelined him for, as DeBoer says, the foreseeable future. Fans have been calling for his head all season long, but it is impossible to judge a player based off this season. His first season with Vegas has eerie similarities to that of Max Pacioretty’s first season in Vegas. Both players were former captains with their previous team that they had played for their entire career. They came in, signed massive deals, and battled injuries which caused their stats to not look fantastic. The next season, Pacioretty returned to form. Pietrangelo not only played in an entirely different system in St. Louis, but in Vegas he has yet to have a consistent pair. He has had Shea Theodore, Alec Martinez, Nick Holden, and Brayden McNabb as his pair at some point during the season. Through 18 games, that is more than one new player every four games. He will improve and return to form at some point, he just needs time and consistency. Once he gets that, Vegas will become an even bigger force to be reckoned with.
The Golden Knights are Contenders for the Stanley Cup, but do not have enough to win it.
The Golden Knights are the best team in the Honda West Division. Save Colorado, they match up very well against every other team. They have a potent top-six and a lethal top-four defense core with depth at defense. The Stephenson line is ranked 10th in the NHL in expected goals for/60min and the Karlsson line ranks 17th. Their 3rd line is potent as well when Alex Tuch really gets going. A person might hear all these things and think, “How do they not have enough to win it all?” The answer is quite simple: When Tuch is not playing lights out, the bottom six forward group gets taken advantage of. Cody Glass has been serviceable at five on five, but his primary “claim to fame” is on the power play. Nic Roy has been serviceable in his own end, but really lacks scoring prowess. The fourth line specifically, has been a mess all season. Ryan Reaves and William Carrier, the two “enforcers'' on the team, both ended 25+ game goalless droughts in the last two games. That being said, they only have four combined assists since the season began and are -4 and -5 on the year, respectively. The bigger issue they have this season is in their own zone. In years prior, the Golden Knight’s fourth line was, at a bare minimum, serviceable in their own end. This year though, anytime they are on the ice they appear to be in trouble. They get hemmed in way too much and make too many mistakes on the puck. They either lose puck battles or get caught too far up the ice, putting the defensemen behind them in bad positions. This usually leads to a goal or a bad penalty taken. Below is an example of the phenomena in action:
These issues only gets worse looking at the top teams in the rest of the league. Teams like Boston and Tampa Bay, when they have the ability to, will jump at any chance to get their top players out against Vegas’ bottom-six. For example, let’s say Vegas faces off against Boston in the Semi-finals. Anytime Vegas’ fourth line is out on the ice, Bruins head coach Bruce Cassidy will be looking to get Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand, and David Pastrnak out there against them. The same goes for the Stamkos line in Tampa Bay. If that happens, particularly in Vegas’ zone, the puck will either end up in the back of the net or a penalty will be called far more often than the Golden Knights can clear the puck.
Fixing the Bottom Six
So clearly the bottom-six is holding the team back, but how do they fix it? Unfortunately due to cap problems, this problem is not an easy fix. The Golden Knights technically are over the cap right now, not including the long term injured reserve spot they have Alex Pietrangelo on. Once he comes back, things will get even more hairy. So going out and just signing somebody will not work. Some people out there have pointed to trading either Lehner or Fleury to clear the cap space. This sounds like a good idea, but could spell disaster if it does not work out. For example, if the Golden Knights were to trade Robin Lehner and Fleury got hurt, they have no replacement for him (and vice versa). As for trading Fleury, why would a team move a goalie in the midst of his best season? The only logical conclusion would be to then trade either Nick Holden, Carrier or Reaves (or any combination of those) and acquire another bottom six piece. Erik Haula, who played in Vegas for two seasons prior to being traded, has been a name floating around trade talks. Haula is a natural center, but has played wing for the Golden Knights in previous years. Trading one of those pieces to Nashville in exchange for Haula could make the forward lines look something like this:
Pacioretty-Stephenson-Stone
Smith-Karlsson-Marchessault
Haula-Glass-Tuch
Nosek-Roy-Brown
Obviously the positions may not pan out that way, but this might be one option the team could go with. It allows for a more defensive-minded fourth line that DeBoer can trust in their own zone. Adding Patrick Brown from the Henderson Silver Knights to play on the right wing gives the team a fourth line with three centers. Either one of them can win faceoffs and all three are serviceable in their own zone.
The million dollar question is whether or not Nashville would want to make this trade. Reaves and Carrier do not benefit their style of play much, if at all. Holden is an attractive depth piece, but does not really help their lineup in an impactful way moving forward. Also in a flat-cap year, teams do not want to take on unnecessary money. This might cause them to have to send draft picks or prospects in a trade as well. The other issue the team might run into is the effect on the locker room, specifically when it comes to Reaves. Reaves is loved by his teammates and fans. Getting rid of him at the deadline might end up doing more harm than good. Nevertheless, the Golden Knights need to find a player, whether that is from trade or their minor league team, to improve their bottom-six forward group if they want to make a run at Lord Stanley's Cup.
Looking Ahead
All of the issues considered, the Vegas Golden Knights are still the best team in the West. The margin might not be as large as fans might want, but they still are a force to be reckoned with. The schedule crunch will prove a major factor coming up as well. It took the Golden Knights over 60 days to complete the first half of the season, and they will play the second half in just 50. Thankfully, Robin Lehner is back so the load can be taken off of Fleury. If the Golden Knights can find a way to make a few minor changes to their lineup, they could go from a cup contender to a cup favorite.
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